What People Watch

Barb data serve three main purposes: one, to support and inform broadcasters’ programming decisions; two, to aid the planning, buying and evaluation of advertising campaigns; and three, to inform how broadcasters operate in the public interest.

Programming that helps voters understand the choices they face at elections falls into the latter category. And debates between potential leaders directly express this.

This is the fifth election where televised debates have been part of the run-up.

Chart 1: Lower expectations and lower audiences are probably related

Source: Barb 2010-2024. Most watched debate each year.2010, 2019 and 2024 – first debate. 2015 and 2017 – second debate.

The chart shows that the first debate in 2010 took by far the largest audience, falling to a low in 2017, picking up in 2019 and falling again in 2024.

Looking behind the figures, we can surmise several reasons. The first debate in 2010 benefited from a novelty factor, but it also marked the end of Labour’s longest term in office. A hung parliament was expected, and there was an appetite to hear what politicians had to say.

Another hung parliament was expected in 2015, so again there was viewer appetite.

But audiences slumped in 2017, despite the immediate Brexit aftermath and Theresa May succeeding David Cameron. Two factors may have contributed to this: one, May was expected to win a significant majority; and two, there was perhaps a degree of Brexit exhaustion among voters — hence Sky News’ decision to run a Brexit-free channel during this period.

Audiences rose again in 2019, perhaps driven by the Boris Johnson factor, but possibly also because whoever won the election would determine the kind of Brexit voters would get.

And then, in 2024, we have a lower audience again. The best explanation is probably a combination of voter fatigue with politics — three Prime Ministers in one parliament may be a turn-off — plus polls consistently predicting a large Labour win.

Certainly by the time of the final Sunak and Starmer debate on June 26^th viewer disenchantment was manifest, with just 2.7m tuning in. By contrast, more people watched Belgium and Ukraine draw 0-0, and in reach terms — allowing for the longer duration of the football — the score was 7.1m for football versus 4.7m for the debate.

A parallel decline in general news viewing

Chart 2: Elections don’t drive news viewing peaks

The most notable spikes in viewing to news content are from the announcement of full lockdown at the start of the Covid pandemic in March 2020 and the death of Queen Elizabeth II in September 2022.

Tracking news viewing shows an overall — if gentle — decline in general news viewing over the same period. Even looking closely at news viewing during elections between 2010 and 2024 there are no serious peaks in audiences.

Only 2017 saw an uptick, but that may be partly explained by the Manchester bomb attack in May a few days into the campaign, and a terror attack on London Bridge shortly before voting day.

Public service vs audience maximisation

Looking again at Barb’s three core purposes, it could be argued that audience appetite for TV leadership debates is on the wane. A series whose viewership had declined by almost 50% from series one to series five would not survive a commissioner’s review: there would be no series six.

But broadcasting debates is not comparable to other TV. It falls into the realm of public service, and in any case commissioners have limited control over its format and content.

Should Labour win the kind of majority they are predicted to on July 4^th it will be interesting to see the audiences on election night. As well as if their actions under a banner of ‘Change’ will be enough to provoke a change in audiences’ appetite for watching the news more generally.

Doug Whepdale is Head of Insight at Barb